Predicting a Tsunami (Part 2)

Tsunamis are not confined to sea & ocean. It can also occur in inland lakes caused by landslides. Most of the tsunamis that was caused by the sea are generated by earthquakes. Yesterday, there were 2 separate incidents of quake reported. They were both moderate in nature. The 1st incident of quake hit the coast of Philippines at a magnitude of 5.1, but there were no immediate reports of casualties or damage. Certainly, no tsunamis triggered. The 2nd quake yesterday hit in Sulawesi province, Indonesia with a magnitude of 5.9.

Could there be another tsunami on July 22nd, 2009?Before we go on trying to speculate about the possibilty of another Tsunami, lets have a look at some facts about tsunami in the past. I have organised it in a question & answer format to stress some important points about this subject. It took me a few days to compile this and a few hours of sleep daily. It is finally out:-

1. Does all earthquakes lead to tsunami?Answer: No. This is too obvious a question with an obvious answer. Only quakes or landslides affecting the water such as the sea, lake or a water dam causes it.
2. Then, if an earthquake occurs in the coast will it then trigger a tsunami?Answer: Not necessarily so. Another simple question with an obvious answer known to many.
3. Does a tsunami occurs itself without any contributing cause?Answer: No. Tsunami is not a natural disaster that can trigger itself without a contributing agent such as landslides or quakes.
4. Are there records of tsunami in ancient days?Answer: Yes. In 373 BC, it has struck in Helike, a city in Greece. As a result, the city was permanently submerged by sea. This city was believed to be just 2km away from the sea. Many ancient writers have commented about this incident. The narration by these writers could have inspired Plato to the myth of the Atlantis.
5. Is there a co-relation between the manitude of an earthquake to the height of a tsunami?Answer: Not accurate. The height of a tsunami wave is not necessarily influenced by the magnitude of an earthquake. There are no corelation between the magnitude of the earthquake to the height of waves it creates.
Example: The Great Chilean earthquake in 1960 recorded a 9.5 in magnitude. The highest height of the wave recorded was only 25 meters (less than 100 feet) in the Pacific ocean. A total of 6000 people lost their lives in this tragedy.
6. What is the fastest triggering time of a tsunami from the onset of an earthquake?Answer: Within 2 ~ 5 minutes from the onset of 7.8 magnitude quake in Okushiri, Japan. This took place in 1993.
Many local wrongly underestimated that they had enough time judging from similar incident in 1983 that took 17 minutes to arrive. They were gravely mistaken when they choose to fled by car over the narrow lanes in the village. They NEVER did reach across.
7. What is the greatest height of a tsunami ever recorded?Answer: Interesting question.
The Highest Tsunami ever recorded till this day is the "Lituya Bay Tsunami" which occured in 1958 caused by an earthquake magnitude of 8.3 on Richter scale.
How it started: The earthquake rocked a small inlet in Alaska called the Lituya Bay. Then, what followed was a part of the mountain at the back of the bay collapsed creating a landslide which then caused a MEGATSUNAMI measuring 1 742 feet!!!
It only killed 2 people from 2 separate boats. The amazing thing that happened here is that a father & his son both in the same boat was carried above the forest & the waves later washed back to the bay, bringing them both alive.
8. Which country has experienced the highest number of tsunami?Answer: Japan. Records has it that a total number of 195 tsunamis have hit this country since it first occured at year 684 AD during the Great Hakuho Period.
9. Has there been any preventive walls built to protect against the tsunami?Answer: Yes. It was a successful attempt. It was built in the coastal village of Taro, now a part of Miyako City, Japan in 1958. The result: The wall saved this village from the Chilean tsunami 2 years later.
10. Has the tsunami ever occured on any prominent dates?Answer: Oh, yes it did.

i) On the April Fool's Day in 1946, it struck in Aleutian Islands, Hawaii which killed 159 people in Hawaii & 5 people in Alaska. It is known as the April Fools Day Tsunami in Hawaii due to people thinking the warnings were an April Fool joke.

ii) The Good Friday Tsunami ~ Occured on March 27, 1964 which hit Alaska, British Columbia, California & coastal Pacific Northwest towns. This was a "Biggie" with a quake magnitude of 9.2 with waves as high as 100 feet killing 132 people.
11. Has there been any tsunami on the same dates?Answer: Yes. April 2nd.
i) April 2nd, 1868: Hawaii
ii)April 2nd, 2007: Solomon Islands
12. Has there been any tsunami originating other than the sea/ocean?Answer: Yes. The Vajont Dam Megatsunami, in Italy.
On October 1963, an enormous landslide of approximately 260 million cubic metres of forest, earth & rock fell in the reservoir at the speed of 110 km/hour (68 mph). It caused 50 million cubic meters of water spillage from this highest dam in the world.
It created a 250 meter high tsunami wave killing almost 2000 people.
13. Which was the deadliest tsunami of them all?Answer: Indian ocean tsunami on December 26, 2004 which took approximately 300 000 lives. It was caused by 2nd largest earthquake in history recording 9 ~ 9.3 magnitude. The highest wave was approximately 108 feet/33 metres.
Now, after inspecting the details at the top, lets look at this prediction once again:

...............Start of prediction..................
Just a warning..!

"Hello there. I just wanted 2 let you know that please stay away from the beaches all around in the month of July. There is a prediction that there will be another tsunami hitting on July 22nd. It is also when there will be sun eclipse. Predicted that it is going 2 be really bad and countries like Malaysia (Sabah & Sarawak), Singapore, Maldives, Australia, Mauritius, Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Philippines are going 2 be badly hit.

Please try and stay away from the beaches in July. Better 2 be safe than sorry. Please pass the word around. Please also pray for all beings."

Please be more cautious as the warnings has been given.

cid:image001.jpg@01C9B6A9.0B499630.


...........End of Prediction.................

Not all predictions are correct no matter how evidence supports them. After the deadliest tsunami of all, the Indian ocean tsunami on 26th December 2004, it was followed by strong tremors right until March 2005. This prompted a lot of attention on warning detectors to avoid catching people off-guard.

In 2005, there was an article from the National Geographic warning of another tsunami soon. Well, it is now 4 years later and that soon never came soon enough. Thank God for that. In 2005, seismologists at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland cautioned "The earthquake- and tsunami-battered region of Sumatra, Indonesia, is at risk for more temblors and killer waves" on June 8th, 2005. They further said, ""We should assume it will happen in the near future and do as much as quickly as we can. For governments to take their eye off the ball of preparedness would be irresponsible."

For more details: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/06/0608_050608_sumatra.html


Now, do you think there will be another TSUNAMI on July 22nd, 2009?